In the context of the arrival of electric vehicles on the car market, new mathematical models are needed to understand and predict the impact on the market shares. This research provides a comprehensive methodology to forecast the demand of a technology which is not widespread yet, such as electric cars. It aims at providing contributions regarding three issues related to the prediction of the demand for electric vehicles: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with personalized choice situations involving standard gasoline/diesel cars and electric cars. We specify a hybrid choice model accounting for attitudes towards leasing contracts or practical aspects of a car in the decision-making process. A forecasting analysis based on the collected SP data and market data is performed to evaluate the future demand for electric cars.
@Article{GleStaTheBie_2013,
author = {Aur\'elie Glerum and Lidija Stankovikj and Micha\"el Th\'emans and Michel Bierlaire},
title = {Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions},
journal = {Transportation Science},
year = {2014},
volume = {48},
number = {4},
pages = {483-499},
DOI = {10.1287/trsc.2013.0487},
note = {Accepted on May 29, 2013}}}