Prof. Ricardo A. Daziano

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University

July 08, 2011, 10:15, Room GC B3 424 (click here for the map)

Conditional-logit Bayes estimators for consumer valuation of electric vehicle driving range

Range anxiety - consumers' concerns about limited driving range - is generally considered an important barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles. If consumers cannot overcome these fears it is unlikely that they will consider purchasing an electric car. Hence, for planning a successful introduction of low emission vehicles in the market it becomes essential to fully understand consumer valuation of driving range. Analyzing experimental data on vehicle purchase decisions in California, in this paper I derive and study the statistical behavior of three Bayes estimates that summarize consumer concerns toward limited driving range. Independence Metropolis-Hastings appears as a well-behaved sampler for nonlinear transformations of the marginal utilities. One of the empirical results is the posterior distribution of the driving range that makes an electric vehicle equivalent to internal combustion vehicles. Interestingly, this posterior is centered at driving range parity. The credible interval for the willingness to pay for an increase in range is also analyzed.