Prof. Ricardo A. Daziano

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University

July 08, 2011, 10:15, Room GC B3 424 (click here for the map)

Conditional-logit Bayes estimators for consumer valuation of electric vehicle driving range

Range anxiety - consumers' concerns about limited driving range - is generally considered an important barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles. If consumers cannot overcome these fears it is unlikely that they will consider purchasing an electric car. Hence, for planning a successful introduction of low emission vehicles in the market it becomes essential to fully understand consumer valuation of driving range. Analyzing experimental data on vehicle purchase decisions in California, in this paper I derive and study the statistical behavior of three Bayes estimates that summarize consumer concerns toward limited driving range. Independence Metropolis-Hastings appears as a well-behaved sampler for nonlinear transformations of the marginal utilities. One of the empirical results is the posterior distribution of the driving range that makes an electric vehicle equivalent to internal combustion vehicles. Interestingly, this posterior is centered at driving range parity. The credible interval for the willingness to pay for an increase in range is also analyzed.

Bio

Dr. Ricardo A. Daziano is a specialist in theoretical and applied microeconometrics of consumer behavior, specifically on discrete choice models applied to sustainable behavior, technological innovation, and transportation demand. Daziano's specific empirical research interests include the analysis of pro-environmental preferences toward low-emission vehicles, modeling the adoption of sustainable behavior, estimating willingness-to-pay for renewable energy, and forecasting consumers' response to environmentally-friendly energy sources. Daziano completed his undergraduate studies and a masters' degree in engineering in Santiago at the University of Chile. After working four years as a demand analyst consultant in the private sector, he decided to pursue an academic career in discrete choice modeling. In 2010 he completed a PhD in economics at Universit´┐Ż Laval in Qu´┐Żbec City, with a specialty in econometrics and industrial organization. In January 2011 he joined the faculty of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Cornell University, adding a new dimension to the area of sustainable systems engineering in both teaching and research. Additionally, Daziano continues to serve as a consultant in consumer choice modeling in areas such as transportation and sustainable tourism.