Baud, C., Paschalidis, E., Vortisch, A., Beine, M., and Bierlaire, M. (2023)

Migration patterns of Europeans after Brexit

24th Swiss Transport Research Conference, Ascona, Switzerland

This paper examines how Brexit-induced access restrictions have influenced migration patterns among European Union (EU) residents, particularly their destination choices. We analyze whether the change in migration policies has altered European Union residents’ intentions to migrate to the UK and explore how these potential migrants are redirecting their destination choices. Using discrete choice modelling framework, we apply a logit model on the Gallup World Poll data set containing declared migration aspiration of European Union citizens. We show that Brexit has led to decreased migration intentions towards the UK among EU residents, with varying effects observed during the uncertainty period (June 2016 to 2021) and the post-Brexit period (after 2021). During the uncertainty period, access conditions remained unchanged, while post-Brexit measures restricting entry had a substantial impact on migration dynamics.