Moret, S., Bierlaire, M., and Maréchal, F. (2014)

Robust Optimization for Strategic Energy Planning

Long-term planning for energy systems is often based on deterministic economic optimization and forecasts of fuel prices. When fuel price evolution is underestimated, the consequence is a low penetration of renewables and more efficient technologies in favour of fossil alternatives. This work aims at overcoming this issue by assessing the impact of uncertainty on energy planning decisions. A classification of uncertainty in energy systems decision-making is performed. Robust optimization is then applied to a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem, representing the typical trade-offs in energy planning. It is shown that in the uncertain domain investing in more efficient and cleaner technologies can be economically optimal.