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\begin{frame}{A DYNAMIC VEHICLE CHOICE FORECASTING FRAMEWORK}

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\item The aim of this research project is to develop a dynamic model framework to forecast car demand. The model-system jointly accounts for behavioural variables (e.g. household evolution, individual motivations), institutional factors (e.g. incentives and taxation) and market features (e.g. new fuel or vehicle technology launches) to forecast vehicle acquisition. The project benefits from a large-scale, longitudinal dataset on vehicle transactions from major European markets. Methodologically the framework consists of a system of aggregate, disaggregate and duration-based choice models, accounting for dynamic features of the decision at each stage. Importantly, the proposed dynamic framework enhances realism by representing the durability of possession, rapid changes in value across product and ownership cycles and uncertainty about future market developments and institutional factors. The proposed framework sheds light on the timing and type of vehicle ownership, illustrating the benefits of taking the first steps away from a static approach. The findings will aid the prediction of consumer behaviour in response to critical policy variables, such as incentives, alongside market dynamics, such as the appearance and diffusion of novel technologies. A deeper understanding of future vehicle choice behaviour is critical given sizable institutional and industrial investments to promote alternative vehicle technologies with a final aim to improve energy efficiency in the transportation sector. More information http://transport.epfl.ch/car-market-structure

\item Sponsor: PSA Peugeot-CitroŽn

\item April 01, 2012-April 30, 2013

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