Glerum, A., Stankovikj, L., Thémans, M., and Bierlaire, M. (2014)
Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions, Transportation Science 48(4):483-499.
In the context of the arrival of electric vehicles on the car market, new mathematical models are needed to understand and predict the impact on the market shares. This research provides a comprehensive methodology to forecast the demand of a technology which is not widespread yet, such as electric cars. It aims at providing contributions regarding three issues related to the prediction of the demand for electric vehicles: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with personalized choice situations involving standard gasoline/diesel cars and electric cars. We specify a hybrid choice model accounting for attitudes towards leasing contracts or practical aspects of a car in the decision-making process. A forecasting analysis based on the collected SP data and market data is performed to evaluate the future demand for electric cars.
doi:10.1287/trsc.2013.0487 (click here for the full paper)